You are here
Lilacs in flower, one of the phenological stages used to help calculate the Extended Spring Index models.
Image credit:
L. Barnett
Extended Spring Indices
DESCRIPTION
These models were constructed using historical observations of the timing of first leaf and first bloom in a cloned lilac cultivar (S. x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') and two cloned honeysuckle cultivars (Lonicera tatarica 'Arnold Red' and L. korolkowii 'Zabelii'). Primary inputs to the model are temperature and weather events, beginning January 1 of each year (Ault et al. 2015). The model output is the day of year that a particular location meets the requirements of the Leaf or Bloom model, averaged across the three species. The Extended Spring Indices are mathematical models that predict the start of spring, as represented by the timing of leaf out or bloom for species active in early spring at a particular location (Schwartz 1997, Schwartz et al. 2006, Schwartz et al. 2013).
The first map at right shows the date the Leaf Index was met in the current year. The second map shows the anomaly - the difference between this year's Leaf Index date and the 30 year average Leaf Index date (1991-2020). Both maps are updated daily and are available as 6-day forecasts through the visualization tool.
PURPOSE
The Extended Spring Indices have been used as an indicator of climate change by both the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Climate Assessment. The product suite supports understanding of spatial patterns in the timing of spring, including short-term forecasts to support resource management. Recent work using this products shows advancement in the timing of spring across the US National Park Service.
RECOMMENDED CITATION
Format: USA National Phenology Network. [Year Published] [Dataset Title] {as of [DOY] (for continuous daily data) | Year(s) [Year(s)] (for annual products) | Date [Date] (for daily products) } for Region [Coordinates]. [Parameterized URL for Data Download] USA-NPN, Tucson, Arizona, USA. Dataset Accessed [Date of Access] at http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7SN0723.
Example: USA National Phenology Network. 2017. Spring Indices, Current Year - First Bloom - Spring Index Date 2017-08-02. Region: 49.9375,-66.4791667,24.0625,-125.0208333. http://data.usanpn.org/geoserver-request‑builder?service=wms&layer=si‑x:average_bloom_ncep&date=2017‑08‑02&format=image/png&projection=4269&width=1700&height=800&colors=1 . USA-NPN, Tucson, Arizona, USA. Data set accessed 2017-8-2. http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7XD0ZRK
DATA
Spring Index products available from USA-NPN include:
- Current year maps of Spring Index First Leaf and First Bloom dates
- 6-day forecast maps of Spring Index First Leaf and First Bloom dates
- Current year anomaly maps of First Leaf and First Bloom dates (current year compared to 30-year [1991-2020] mean)
- Annual First Leaf and First Bloom date maps, 1981-2015
- 30-year (1991-2020) mean maps for First Leaf and First Bloom dates
- Annual First Leaf and First Bloom date maps, 1880-2021
- Annual Return Intervals for First Leaf and First Bloom (2019: Leaf, Bloom, 2020: Leaf, Bloom)
Download Data Using the USA-NPN Geoserver Request Builder
- Raster Data Files (GeoTiff, ArcGrid, NetCDF)
- Map Image Files (PNG, TIF, GIF, PDF)
Web Services Available via the USA-NPN Geoserver (geoserver.usanpn.org/geoserver/wms? request=GetCapabilities)
Visualize the Data Using the USA-NPN Visualization Tool
- Extended Spring Index data can be viewed independently or in conjunction with in-situ plant or animal phenology observation data using the online USA-NPN Visualization Tool
ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTATION
Daily Accumulated Growing Degree Day and Spring Index Maps information sheet
Map Products Documentation: Crimmins, T.M., R.L. Marsh, J. Switzer, M.A. Crimmins, K.L. Gerst, A.H. Rosemartin, and J.F. Weltzin. 2017. USA National Phenology Network gridded products documentation. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017–1003. DOI: 10.3133/ofr20171003.
ESTIMATING PLAUSIBILITY IN SPRING INDEX PRODUCTS
To assess the plausibility of the species sub-models that comprise the Indices, we compare modeled output to observations of breaking leaf buds and open flowers on lilac and honeysuckle plants submitted by observers, in the Spring Index Plausibility Dashboard.
REFERENCES
Ault, T. R., M. D. Schwartz, R. Zurita-Milla, J. F. Weltzin, and J. L. Betancourt, 2015. Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices. Journal of Climate 28: 8363-8378.
Schwartz, M. D., 1997. Spring index models: an approach to connecting satellite and surface phenology. Phenology in seasonal climates I, 23-38.
Schwartz, M.D., R. Ahas, and A. Aasa, 2006. Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Global Change Biology, 12, 343-351.
Schwartz, M. D., T. R. Ault, and J. L. Betancourt, 2013. Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 2917–2922, 10.1002/joc.3625.