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How your data are being used

The plant and animal phenology observations that Nature's Notebook participants have been contributing tell some interesting stories! We invite you to read about some of our most recent discoveries from Nature's Notebook data below. Check back often; we update this page frequently!

Thanks to phenology observations from both arboreta and those collected by Nature’s Notebook observers, researchers were able to predict how rare and understudied species may respond to climate change. Collaborations with botanical gardens and arboreta are critical to continuing to build our understanding of changing phenology.
In this study, a research team evaluated eight approaches to identifying the dates of the starts and ends of the growing season to MODIS imagery across United States. They compared the estimates of start and end of season with phenology observations contributed to Nature’s Notebook. The different approaches to identifying the start and end of the season showed a great deal of variability in the dates returned. The date identified as the start of the season at a location varied by as much as 50 days between two approaches. The authors of this study emphasize the importance of ground-based observations of phenology, such as those contributed to Nature’s Notebook, in interpreting imagery collected by remote instruments such as those borne on satellites.
Accounting for the fact that species respond differently to the same amount of warmth in different parts of their range presents a challenge for predicting phenological events like leaf-out. The authors of a new study developed a novel approach for incorporating this phenomenon into phenology models. They then incorporated this approach into models of budbreak for 14 widely distributed tree species. This study was only possible due to the large amount of data collected by Nature’s Notebook observers across a broad area. Incorporating this information will lead to more accurate, geographically-relevant forecasts for management of these species.
We have a decade of data on over a thousand species – thanks to your efforts! We can start to answer big picture questions, as this study did, finding that leaf out in spring comes earlier in response to longer days and spring warmth, and is delayed by freezes and lack of winter cold. Delayed phenology can be a good thing, protecting plants from false springs -  or have a negative effect, by limiting the time plants have to take advantage of the growing season.
Managers have traditionally used dogwood blooms as an indicator of when to set out traps, recognizing that dogwood flowering tended to coincide with the beetle’s springtime dispersal. Using observations contributed to Nature’s Notebook, researchers determined that dogwood flowering is not presently a strong indicator of southern pine beetle spring emergence, and the reason for this might be recent changes in climate conditions.
Invasive, non-native shrubs frequently leaf out earlier in the spring and hold onto leaves later in the fall than natives, out-competing native plants and shading the forest floor at times when other species depend on the sunlight. To better understand how this phenomenon of Extended Leaf Phenology in invasive plants plays out at a regional scale, Maynard-Bean and colleagues used data collected by Nature's Notebook participants to document differences in leaf phenology between native and invasive shrubs. The authors found that the leaf period was up to 77 days longer for invasive species compared to natives. Better knowledge of how invasive shrubs negatively impact natives can help stem the purposeful spread of these plants by humans and protect native species and their ecosystems.
In order to better target the timing of control of invasive Vebesina enceliodes, a team of staff and volunteers at Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge began collecting phenology data to identify how much time they had in between when the plant starts to grow and when it drops its seeds. After a year of data collection with Nature's Notebook, the team determined the number of days they could allow between treatments and adjusted their schedules accordingly. This study demonstrates the potential for data collected by volunteer scientists to inform ecological restoration.
Flowering in chamise, a widely distributed plant in fire-prone chapparal California, is a good indicator of fire risk. Data contributed to Nature’s Notebook helped researchers identify that a critical live fuel moisture threshold is crossed after the plant has flowered but before fruits have developed. Accordingly, managers can readily and inexpensively assess live fuel moisture status in these areas simply by looking at chamise flower and fruit status. This study shows the potential for phenology information from programs like Nature’s Notebook to inform critical management decisions.
Authors of a new study using Nature's Notebook data found that in cold regions, urbanization leads to earlier leaf-out and flowering in plants. However, in warmer temperate and sub-tropical regions, urbanization delays leafing and flowering. The authors speculate several reasons for this difference, including a lack of winter chilling that some plants require, heat stress, or a greater influence of other aspects of urbanization besides heat. Phenology can serve as the “canary in the coal mine” for climate change impacts on our environment, so keep those Nature’s Notebook observations coming!
Urban growers need information about how best to manage pests, for example, knowing when to apply a pesticide to have the least likelihood of impacting a beneficial pollinator. Data resulting from citizen science programs like Nature’s Notebook, iNaturalist, and eButterfly can support urban growers’ efforts to increase the presence of pollinators and other beneficial insects and decrease insect pests. Growers can use these platforms to support insect identification, store their data in a standardized format, compare their data to those from other farms, and predict when pests will be most vulnerable to treatment.

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